Active layer modelling at Stelvio Pass, Italian Alps

Here, we present the result of different models for active layer thickness (ALT) in an area of the Italian Central Alps where a few information about the ALT is present. Looking at a particular warm year (2018), we improved PERMACLIM, a model used to calculate the Ground Surface Temperature (GST) and applied two different versions of Stefan's equation to model the ALT. PERMACLIM was updated refining the temporal basis (daily respect the monthly means) of the air temperature and the snow cover. PERMACLIM was updated also to minimize the bias of the snow cover in summer months using the PlanetScope images. Moreover, the contribution of the solar radiation was added to the air temperature to improve the summer GST. The modelled GST showed a good calibration and, among the two versions of Stefan's equation, the first (ALT1) indicates a maximum active layer thickness of 7.5 m and showed a better accuracy with R2 of 0.93 and RMSE of 0.32 m. The model underlined also the importance of better definition of the thermal conductivity of the ground that can strongly influence the ALT. • Mountain permafrost models are very sensitive to snow spatial and temporal variability. • Active layer thickness is much better modelled by ground TDD than air TDD and N-factor. • Active layer thickness is strongly related to the thermal properties of the ground. • Permafrost and active layer models should be updated to high temporal resolution in mountain areas.