Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises

Abstract This essay explores the technological, economic, and sociocultural dimensions of artificial intelligence (AI) as a paradigmatic case of a promising technology. Drawing on concepts from science and technology studies (STS) and innovation research, it critically examines how future-oriented narratives—often framed as inevitable or deterministic—structure public discourse, mobilize resources, and shape expectations. These dynamics are particularly visible in the cases of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and generative AI (GenAI). The thesis is that AI is, on the one hand, accompanied and propelled by far-reaching promises, while on the other hand diverse application problems and fundamental functional limitations are frequently overlooked. As a result, skeptical and critical perspectives are gaining increasing prominence in the AI discourse. Therefore, the future prospects of AI could be characterized more by a development path that can be described as routinization, and less by the vision of AGI. However, it is argued that society's fascination with AI goes beyond technological and economic aspects, neglecting application problems and fundamental functional limitations. This persuasiveness is ultimately based on the vagueness of the term AI and the long-standing myth of the intelligent machine.