Defining Resilient Energy Pathways: A Modeling Framework to Address Uncertainty in Long-Term Planning

Energy system transitions are inherently complex, requiring long-term planning to navigate uncertainties and achieve sustainability and resilience goals. Traditional energy modeling approaches often rely on assumptions of perfect foresight or utilize rolling horizon methods, which inadequately capture the dynamics of decision-making under imperfect foresight. This study introduces a multi-stage modeling framework designed to better represent real-world decision-making under uncertainty by revising forecasts and updating decisions throughout the planning horizon. A pilot model is developed and applied to a case study using historical data on power sector development, serving as an initial test of the framework's applicability. Results suggest that this approach provides a more realistic representation of decision-making processes in energy planning and warrants further exploration for improving long-term energy system planning and investment strategies under uncertainty.