The narrative construction of political competence: challenging the expert/amateur binary in Japan’s foreign and security policy

Whether expertise or amateurism is attributed to political leaders can play a pivotal role in their success. This article analyzes the dissemination of such reputations, focusing on the perceived foreign and security policy competence of Japanese leaders between 2009 and 2020. This period saw brief tenures as prime minister for Hatoyama Yukio and Kan Naoto, both of whom were criticized for their incompetence in managing Japan’s foreign relations and national security. In contrast, the late Abe Shinzō was widely acknowledged to be a skilled expert throughout his time in power. Our analysis thus represents a “least likely case” for challenging the assumption that reputation accurately reflects skill or performance. Through an examination the policy records of these three leaders, which relies inter alia on interviews with Japanese policymakers and foreign policy observers, the article proposes that reputations for expertise or amateurism persist due to the power of widely disseminated narratives.