Revisiting the gateway belief model: The importance of climate change experience and perceived threat

The Gateway Belief Model offers an elegant solution for shifting public support for climate change (and other) policy. “Gateway” beliefs have direct effects on support for the policy goal and influence other beliefs and attitudes that affect policy support, leading to an impact on policy support that is amplified by the inclusion of both direct and indirect effects. Central to the effectiveness of using the Gateway Belief Model is selecting the correct gateway belief, as well as identifying appropriate mediating variables. Using a sample of 2,278 respondents, we proposed and compared three different GBM-inspired models to map public support for climate action. Specifically, we compared the role of confidence in climate science prediction and personal experience of climate change as alternative gateway beliefs, and the role of belief in climate change and perceived threat as mediating variables. We found that experience of climate change is a similarly effective GBM-inspired gateway belief as confidence in scientific prediction, while the perceived threat from climate change is a superior mediating variable. Using mediation analysis, we further analysed the effects from two variables in our revised model and demonstrated that cognitive beliefs (such as perceived threat of climate change) are a much stronger driver of policy support than emotional drivers (i.e., worry about climate change). This is important evidence given that negative emotionally-based climate drivers can produce significant negative effects on community mental health. We also examined whether our findings are robust across gender and political persuasion. While there are significant differences in beliefs and attitudes across these groups, the gateway path effects are consistent across most groups. Our findings highlight the importance in marketing communications of helping people to understand and interpret changes in climate and its consequences (as well as possible adaptation solutions). • Gateway Belief Model revisited while using non-casual pathways and cognitive drivers. • Confidence in Climate Science Predictions and Experience of Climate change are potential gateways. • Proposed Gateway Belief Model tested while using cross sectional survey from 2278 Australians.