Atmospheric warming drives shallow rock slope instability via irreversible joint opening

Abstract Rock slopes are exposed to atmospheric temperature fluctuations, which affect the evolution of stresses and strains across various timescales. Climate change is modifying the thermal regime of rock masses, potentially accelerating processes associated with weathering and gravitational deformation. While current thermal and mechanical conditions of rock slopes can be monitored in situ, predicting their long-term evolution remains challenging. In this study, thermal and joint displacement data were used to calibrate a semi-coupled thermo-mechanical model of a rock slope at Pastýřská stěna in Děčín, Czechia. The model was then fed with projected temperatures over the next hundred years. Simulations showed progressive, irreversible joint opening and rock face displacement, suggesting increased instability in the slope’s near-surface zone. These findings demonstrate that continued atmospheric warming in temperate climates may significantly impact the long-term stability of rock slopes, warranting systematic consideration of the role of thermal regimes at the atmosphere-ground interface.