Coupling between water resource constraints and agricultural sustainability in Henan Province, China

This study aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2: Zero Hunger; SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation). Based on the industrial development and the DPSR (Drivers-Pressures-State-Responses) theory, 43 evaluation indicators were selected. Utilizing models including the Comprehensive Development Index, the Coupling Coordination Degree, and the Grey Relational Analysis, this study investigates the coupled coordination association level of agricultural economic development and water resources exploitation and utilization in Henan Province and its 17 prefecture-level cities over nearly two decades. The findings reveal that: (1) Over the past 20 years, both the comprehensive development index for the two systems have shown an upward trend. The growth of the agricultural economic development is primarily driven by Factor Input, while the level of water resources exploitation and utilization is chiefly influenced by Drivers. (2) Over the past two decades, the coupling coordination degree between the two systems also exhibited an upward trend. However, the asynchronous development of the two systems in eight cities resulted in unstable coordination. (3) Variables related to farmer welfare exhibited relatively high rankings in their influence on water resources exploitation and utilization, whereas variables associated with water resources endowment showed the lowest influence on agricultural economic development.