The Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union: Why cooperation not confrontation?

This paper examines the strategic interaction between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) spearheaded by Russia. The paper adopts an interdisciplinary perspective, integrating political and economic theories, and employs the “Progress-Plan-Problem” (PPP) framework to assess the evolution, potentials and challenges of these two cooperation mechanisms. It also investigates why cooperation, rather than confrontation, has characterized the relationship between the BRI and the EAEU. The analysis suggests that despite underlying competition and asymmetric relationships, the convergence of Sino-Russian interests in trade, infrastructure, finance, and energy, fosters a cooperative dynamic under the BRI-EAEU coupling framework. This cooperation is further underpinned by balanced interests, mutual dependence, and resolved territorial disputes. However, the establishment of a free trade area between China and the EAEU remains premature, due to structural constraints and geopolitical tensions. Instead, the paper advocates for prioritizing preferential trade agreements and optimizing consultation mechanisms as initial steps toward deeper integration. The paper provides an in-depth conceptual analysis of the BRI and the EAEU, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the strategic cooperation and restrained competition between China and Russia.