Hosts, pathogens and hot ponds: thermal mean and variability contribute to spatial patterns of chytrid infection

Temperature is a primary driver of heterogeneity in host–pathogen dynamics and understanding how patch‐scale temperature affects landscape‐scale patterns of pathogen infection is key to effective monitoring and management. In field studies, both temperature variability and mean temperature are often related to infection of ectothermic animals by fungal pathogens, and although these factors vary spatiotemporally, their contributions to infection outcomes are rarely decomposed into spatial and temporal components. We studied how patch‐scale thermal conditions (mean and variability) affect infection of eastern newts Notophthalmus viridescens by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), with a special focus on disentangling spatial versus temporal contributions of thermal conditions to infection outcomes. We measured in situtemperature and Bd infection across 20 ponds in two years in southeastern Wisconsin, USA to 1) understand thermal mediation of infection and 2) quantify whether seasonal and/or among‐site variation in thermal conditions drive heterogeneity in host–pathogen interactions. In our system, thermal mean and variability covaried tightly, necessitating the creation of a single index to capture both components. We found that 1) this index of thermal mean and variability was strongly and nonlinearly related to Bd infection and 2) differences among patches in thermal conditions drove this relationship, highlighting that variation in patch‐level conditions can drive heterogenous host–pathogen outcomes across landscapes. Our research collectively reveals insights about the importance of local, patch‐level conditions for mediating disease risk at broader scales.