Fractal modeling of wildfire spread using environmental parameter fields across Mediterranean landscapes

Background Wildfire spread modeling is essential for understanding fire behavior and improving mitigation strategies. However, many existing models struggle to capture the irregular and scale-dependent nature of wildfire perimeters. Aims This study introduces a fractal-based simulation framework for modeling wildfire propagation, integrating terrain and weather-related environmental parameters. Methods We applied a modified twindragon fractal structure to simulate wildfire spread across geographic information system (GIS)-derived maps of slope, aspect, land use, Fire Weather Index (FWI) and wind direction. The model was tested on four recent wildfire events in Mediterranean landscapes. Key results The simulations reproduced observed wildfire scar shapes with good fidelity, capturing both interior and boundary complexity. The model dynamically responds to spatial variations in environmental conditions and is adaptable to different geographic contexts. Conclusions Fractal geometry provides a viable alternative for simulating wildfire spread, offering a scale-sensitive and flexible modeling approach. Implications This method may support scenario-based wildfire risk assessments and fuel management planning, and could be extended for real-time forecasting with further development.