The psychology of political attitudinal volatility

Abstract The assumption that political beliefs are formed by early‐life socialization and psychological predispositions, leading to stability in adulthood, increasingly acts as a theoretical cornerstone in the literature. However, politics is replete with examples of attitudinal change; this article proposes that certain stable psychological predispositions are likely to foster volatility in attitudes and general cognition. Using British electoral panel data, it shows that social distrust, open‐mindedness, and tolerance for uncertainty are associated with greater volatility in attitudes to immigration, redistribution, European integration, environmentalism, capital punishment, and Scottish independence. Locus of control, need‐for‐cognition, empathy, and risk tolerance are associated only with volatility in attitudes to some issues. Age, education, household income, being male, and lower partisanship are all negatively associated with attitudinal volatility. Overall, this study suggests that attitudinal volatility itself constitutes a meaningful dimension of political behavior, rooted in stable psychological predispositions.