Sustainable groundwater management policy appraisal in a climate-responsive stressed aquifer system: integrated GIS and modeling approaches

ABSTRACT Groundwater in Pakistan, especially in the 6,498 km2 area between the Chenab and Sutlej Rivers, is a critical yet stressed resource. Levels decline by 0.08–0.6 m annually due to increasing domestic, agricultural demands, urbanization, climate change, and poor groundwater management governance. Using the MODFLOW model, this study simulates groundwater dynamics over a 15-year historical period and projects trends up to 2045. Projections indicate that, under current abstraction rates, groundwater levels could decline by 0.84–0.97 m/year by 2045. Mitigation via artificial recharge, like constructing six cascade dams on the Sutlej River, could boost recharge from 80 to 103.3 MCM daily, but abstraction may stay high at 117.8 MCM/day. On the supply side, supplementary interventions such as recharge lakes and infiltration wells can further enhance recharge potential. Climate projections also indicate a favorable 17–20% increase in rainfall from 2015 to 2064 compared with 1965 to 2014, supporting recharge initiatives. Sustainable abstraction is estimated at 0.12684 MCM/day for urban areas and 55 MCM/day across the study area. To ensure long-term water security and sustainable groundwater management, the study emphasizes policy actions such as integrating recharge strategies, issuing permits, enforcing safe yield limits, and community engagement.