Regional production shift and increased utilization dampen the growth of China’s coal mine methane emissions

Abstract Methane emissions contribute to about 30% of global warming, with coal mining in China as a major source. Here we comprehensively assess coal mine methane emissions in China from 2000 to 2023 by combining provincial production data with coal mine-specific emission factors. We employ a methodological framework to identify key factors affecting emission factors of individual coal mines, estimate provincial production-weighted average emission factors, and assess their associated uncertainties using bootstrap simulations. The findings reveal distinct geographic patterns in emission factors, with higher values observed in the Southwest (e.g., Guizhou and Sichuan), while the North and Northwest regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang) exhibit comparatively lower emission factors. Mine production shifts from high-emitting provinces to low-emitting regions resulted in total coal mine methane emission reduction after 2016. Our analysis highlights the critical role of regional production shifts and mine-specific characteristics in shaping coal mine methane emissions.