Ecological Suitability Modeling of Sweet Cherry (Prunus avium L.) in the Fez-Meknes Region of Morocco Under Current Climate Conditions

Sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.), a temperate fruit species highly sensitive to thermal and hydric stress, faces increasing cultivation challenges in semi-arid regions such as Fez-Meknes (Morocco) due to climate change. This study aims to identify ecologically suitable zones for sweet cherry cultivation by modeling its current potential distribution using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) approach. A total of 1151 georeferenced occurrence records were collected through field surveys and validated with satellite imagery. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were initially considered, and a subset with low multicollinearity (|r| < 0.7) was retained for analysis. Model performance, evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC), yielded a high mean value of 0.960 ± 0.014, indicating excellent predictive accuracy. Elevation, annual precipitation (BIO12), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) emerged as key drivers of the species’ distribution, as confirmed by both Jackknife and SPCPI analyses. Spatial prediction maps highlighted high-suitability zones in the provinces of Ifrane, El Hajeb, Azrou, and Sefrou, aligning with known agro-climatic production areas. In contrast, lower suitability was observed in more arid or heat-prone provinces such as Boulemane and Midelt. These findings provide a robust bioclimatic framework for agroecological planning, supporting adaptive varietal zoning and long-term planning for climate-resilient horticulture.