Fire Risk Assessment of Lithium-Ion Power Battery Shipping Containers in Maritime Transportation Scenarios

As the demand for maritime transportation of power battery shipping containers grows rapidly, the incidence of fire accidents has increased in tandem. However, most studies focus on analyzing fire causes through the thermal runaway mechanism; few analyze fire risk across the full maritime transportation process from a safety science perspective. To fill this gap, based on the thermal runaway mechanism of lithium-ion batteries, this study couples the loading characteristics of shipping containers with maritime operating conditions and employs the Fault Tree (FT) model, Bayesian Network (BN) model, and Attack–Defense Game Theory for investigation. The results are as follows: Starting from three core factors—battery thermal runaway mechanism, scenario characteristics of shipping container maritime transportation, and failure of initial emergency response—and combining the FT model, it qualitatively identified and systematically sorted accident-causing factors. Via the FT-BN conversion criteria and expert assessment results, the fire probability of po’wer battery shipping containers on the target route was calculated to be 35%. According to Attack–Defense Game Theory, two key risk evolution pathways were identified with occurrence probabilities of 3.77% and 4.35%, respectively. Meanwhile, their action mechanisms were elaborated on, and the targeted preventive measures were proposed. This study provides theoretical support and methodological reference for the systematic assessment of fire risks associated with power battery shipping containers in maritime scenarios.