SHAP-based interpretation of holistic traffic risk causation patterns using high-resolution trajectory data and risk field theory

Using SHAP analysis, we interpreted the contribution of individual traffic state variables and their interactions to traffic risk. The vehicle type distribution in traffic flow was identified as a key factor influencing conflict occurrence. This study not only provides accurate risk prediction but also enhances the interpretability of machine learning-based traffic risk models, bridging prediction and causal insight.

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Publication Details

Journal
Traffic Injury Prevention
Published
2025-11-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2582693
Primary Topic
Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

SHAP-based interpretation of holistic traffic risk causation patterns using high-resolution trajectory data and risk field theory

Zhenhua Li, Bin Li, Pengcheng Li, Wei Zhang et al.
Traffic Injury Prevention
Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
article

SHAP-based interpretation of holistic traffic risk causation patterns using high-resolution trajectory data and risk field theory

Zhenhua Li, Bin Li, Pengcheng Li, Wei Zhang, Jun Hua
article en

Abstract

Using SHAP analysis, we interpreted the contribution of individual traffic state variables and their interactions to traffic risk. The vehicle type distribution in traffic flow was identified as a key factor influencing conflict occurrence. This study not only provides accurate risk prediction but also enhances the interpretability of machine learning-based traffic risk models, bridging prediction and causal insight.

Traffic Injury Prevention
Ministry of Transport (CZ), Ministry of Transport (CN), Research Institute of Highway (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 61%
Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
DOISourceOpenAlex
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SHAP-based interpretation of holistic traffic risk causation patterns using high-resolution trajectory data and risk field theory — Zhenhua Li, Bin Li, et al. · Traffic Injury Prevention (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS