Smart system for forecasting financial outcomes and supporting strategic choices

In a period characterised by swift technological changes, choosing the most suitable strategic initiative presents a significant challenge for organisations aiming for long-term financial sustainability and competitive advantage. This research introduces a Smart Decision Support System that combines financial forecasting with a comprehensive multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework to assess various strategic options in the face of uncertainty. The opinion weight criteria method (OWCM) is utilised to ascertain the relative significance of evaluation criteria through expert opinions, thereby minimising bias and ensuring equitable weight distribution. The complex picture fuzzy set (CPFS) framework effectively addresses uncertainty in expert judgements, providing superior modelling capabilities for hesitation and imprecision relative to traditional fuzzy environments. A novel ranking approach, termed mixed aggregation by comprehensive normalisation technique (MACONT), is developed to prioritise alternatives. This method integrates the strengths of both additive and multiplicative aggregation, facilitating a balanced and comprehensive assessment. The proposed framework includes a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of different criteria weights on the final rankings, thereby validating the stability and robustness of the results. The model is also evaluated against established MCDM methods such as ERUNS, AROMAN, and WASPAS to ensure consistency, reliability, and practical applicability. The findings indicate that the proposed approach reliably produces stable rankings in various scenarios, providing decision-makers with a robust and flexible tool for strategic planning in dynamic and uncertain contexts.