Logistical and Economic Feasibility in the Cheese Production Chain: A Study Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Background: Agricultural production plays a vital role in the global economy by integrating different sectors and promoting capital circulation across industries. In this context, the dairy sector emerges as a promising avenue for investment. This study aims to assess the economic feasibility of establishing a dairy plant for the production of parmesan and mozzarella cheeses in Lavras, MG, considering both deterministic and probabilistic scenarios. Methods: The analysis was conducted in three stages: data collection, deterministic economic feasibility analysis using traditional financial indicators (NPV, IRR, profitability rate, and payback), and a probabilistic assessment using the Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations to incorporate uncertainty into the model. Results: The deterministic results indicated a positive Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) exceeding the Minimum Attractiveness Rate (MAR), and a profitability rate above 1.5, validating the investment’s viability. The probabilistic analysis reinforced these findings, with over 80% of simulated scenarios resulting in a positive NPV and over 77% showing IRR above the MAR. Key variables influencing profitability included market share, Class AB cheese consumer percentage, parmesan markup, operational costs, and per capita cheese consumption. Conclusions: The study confirms the economic feasibility of implementing the proposed dairy plant. The integration of Monte Carlo Simulation enhanced the robustness of the analysis by accounting for uncertainty, providing valuable insights for strategic decision-making. The project presents strong potential for regional development, job creation, and income generation.