Land Expansion and Green Rural Transformation in Developing Countries: A Kaya Identity Approach

Many developing countries are highly dependent on agriculture and land expansion, which leads to the loss of forests and other natural habitats. Both features pose a challenge for green rural transformation. By applying a “land” Kaya identity, growth in agricultural land use for developing countries is at least partially attributed to four factors: growth in income (GDP) per capita, population, the agricultural value-added share of GDP, and the land intensity of agricultural value added. The results show that, across 122 developing countries from 2010 to 2021, both the agricultural value-added share of GDP and land expansion are negatively correlated with GDP per capita. However, there is little association between income per person and land intensity. From 2000 to 2021, the agricultural value-added share of GDP and land intensity declined in developing countries, but not sufficiently to offset the pressure on agricultural land expansion from the growth of GDP per capita and population. Decoupling land use expansion from economic growth will require substantial reductions in land intensity and agricultural dependency through policies that raise agricultural land productivity, improve efficiency and equity, and limit unnecessary agricultural land expansion. Future research should focus on applying geospatial data and sub-national analysis to analyze these trends.