Increasing Variability in Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Intensity Over the South China Sea

Abstract Lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) is a key metric for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, providing insights into TC evolution and impact. However, research on LMI in the South China Sea (SCS) is limited. Our study found a significant increase in LMI amplitude in the SCS since the 1980s. This change was driven by decreasing LMI of local TCs and increasing LMI of migratory TCs from the western North Pacific. Attribution analysis showed that a westward shift in local TC genesis increased land constraints, suppressed TC development, and weakened LMI. In contrast, the poleward migration of TC tracks facilitated the increased entry of storms into the SCS through the Luzon Strait with minimal land interaction, thereby enhancing the LMI of migratory TCs. Additionally, favorable environmental conditions increase the frequency of rapid intensification events, further boosting LMI. These changes suggest the growing potential impact of TCs on countries and regions surrounding the SCS.