Can infrastructural investments reverse the unfavourable modal split in Poland? Findings from a local study of the railway venture

Abstract After the collapse of the command-and-control system, Central and Eastern European countries witnessed a significant modal shift. Previously, mobility there was largely dominated by public transport, but the political and economic reforms transformed these areas into places where individual mobility plays a main role. Poland was no exception. Currently, the majority of Polish people, especially from small- and medium-sized towns and rural areas, use passenger cars on a daily basis, which leads to negative societal and environmental consequences such as congestion, maintenance costs of road infrastructure, and air and soil pollution. In response to these problems, public authorities have initiated policies and investments designed to stimulate a modal shift towards public transport. This article aims to verify the possibility of a modal shift as a result of upcoming railway infrastructural investment. The above-mentioned objective is achieved by means of a survey conducted among commuters performing daily travel to and from the case city of Polkowice. The collected data were analysed using a decision tree method, which is relatively novel in geographic and transport studies. The results showed that the majority of the surveyed respondents expressed an inclination to use the restored railway line, whereas only a small proportion were willing to abandon car transport in favour of train travel. The applied method also allowed the profile of those persons most inclined the to make a modal shift to be identified.