Regional-scale groundwater analysis with dimensionality reduction

Abstract. Given the importance of groundwater for freshwater provision and groundwater-dependent ecosystems, understanding climate effects on groundwater changes at a regional scale is essential. In this paper, we propose a new way of applying dimensionality reduction for such purpose, not over the collected data, nor over any calibrated models, but over the misfits between the modeled and observed groundwater levels. This methodology highlights local differences in climate-groundwater relations and can be used to identify regions with different vulnerabilities in a data-driven way. The approach takes gridded groundwater level data and gridded precipitation and evapotranspiration data as input. Linear water balance models are set up for each grid cell in an independent way. The misfits between the water balance model simulations and groundwater levels are used for the dimensionality reduction-based regionalization, with which areas of different groundwater behavior are identified. We demonstrate the potential of our methodology in the Berlin-Brandenburg region, Germany, where groundwater is a major freshwater source at risk. We show that groundwater level changes are linearly related to climatic variations at a monthly scale, even in areas with strong anthropogenic influences. The dimensionality reduction further reveals an approximate regionalization of groundwater behavior, which can be used as a basis for more detailed investigations.