Climate Dynamics in Guinea Under Global Warming: Analysis of Extreme Air Temperatures and Precipitation

The study investigates observed and projected climate change in Guinea by analyzing air temperature and precipitation trends from 1991 to 2024, along with numerical simulations from global climate models (CMIP6) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios up to 2100. Using ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS satellite precipitation data, supplemented by CMIP6 ensemble outputs, we identify a consistent warming trend across the country, averaged values of 0.1–0.5 °C per decade, with the most significant increases in the northern and southeastern regions. Extreme temperatures are rising faster than mean temperatures, elevating the risk of heatwaves. Precipitation trends exhibit spatial variability: coastal areas are experiencing increased precipitation intensity (up to 200 mm per decade), while mountainous and northern regions are becoming drier (with declines of up to 250 mm per decade). Projections for the 21st century indicate accelerated warming, with temperature increases of +2–3 °C by 2050 and +3–5.5 °C by 2100, depending on the scenario. While moderate emissions (SSP2-4.5) may lead to a temporary rise in precipitation, the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) predicts a sharp decline in precipitation during the latter half of the century. Utilizing high-resolution data, we identified regional climatic features across Guinea’s diverse topography. By dividing the country into four distinct regions and conducting a detailed analysis of representative points, we assessed their varying vulnerability to climate change.