Added Value of Assimilating FY-4B AGRI Water Vapor Radiances on Analyses and Forecasts for “23 · 7” Heavy Rainfall

The infrared satellite data have become an important source of assimilated data in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. With the self-constructed assimilated module in the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system, a set of cycling assimilation experiments is conducted to evaluate the added value of assimilating the Fengyun-4B (FY-4B) Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI) water vapor channels clear-sky data on analyses and forecasts for “23 · 7” heavy rainfall. The results show a notable reduction (50~60%) in the root mean square error (RMSE) of observed and simulated brightness temperature after assimilating AGRI and the positive analysis increments in temperature and humidity fields, which are conducive to precipitation formation. Furthermore, changes in humidity analysis caused by AGRI assimilation propagate from the upper to lower levels with assimilation cycling. Compared to the benchmark experiment, the AGRI assimilation experiments produce higher humidity conditions and more pronounced ascending motion, resulting in more realistic rainfall predictions at both location and intensity with higher rainfall scores, especially with the two-step assimilation scheme. Moreover, based on the results from sensitivity experiments, it is proven that the addition of a new channel 11 can further improve humidity and enhance rainfall location and intensity predictions. Overall, the clear-sky assimilation of the FY-4B AGRI water vapor channel data brings notable improvements to “23 · 7” heavy rainfall prediction.