Coupled Impacts of Bed Erosion and Roughness Variation on Stage-Discharge Relationships: A 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling Analysis of the Regulated Jingjiang Reach

The stage-discharge relationship in the Jingjiang Reach of the Yangtze River has undergone significant alterations due to post-Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) operation effects, notably bed erosion and roughness variation. This study employs a calibrated 1D hydrodynamic model based on Saint-Venant equations. The model was validated with high accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.94 at key stations) using long-term hydrological data (1996–2022). Four scenarios were simulated: pre-dam conditions, post-dam topography with pre-dam roughness, pre-dam topography with increased roughness, and coupled post-dam changes. A novel scenario-based decomposition framework was developed to isolate individual and coupled factor contributions, advancing beyond traditional descriptive approaches. The results indicate that upstream water level changes are mainly controlled by riverbed erosion (e.g., at the Zhicheng Station: the topographic contribution rate exceeds 80% at a flow rate of 5000 m3/s, resulting in a water level drop of approximately 1.7 m), while downstream, an increase in roughness becomes the dominant factor (e.g., at the Jianli Station: causing a water level rise of about 1.0 m at a flow rate of 13,000 m3/s, with such changes being particularly pronounced under low-flow conditions). Spatially, topographic influence attenuates downstream, whereas roughness sensitivity amplifies in high-sinuosity reaches (bend coefficient: 3.0). Seasonally, the topographic contribution rate remains stable overall during the low-flow period, e.g., within a narrow range of 0.88–0.98 at Zhicheng Station, while roughness effects exhibit negative values in dry periods (November) due to fine sediment deposition. The coupling effect in mid-discharge ranges (15,000–20,000 m3/s) at Jianli partially offsets stage reductions. These findings not only provide critical insights for flood forecasting and navigation management in the Jingjiang Reach but also offer a transferable methodology for quantifying hydro-morphodynamic interactions in global regulated rivers, highlighting the model’s utility in predictive water resource management.