Does Government Digital Transformation Reduce Urban Crime: Evidence From a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China

The rapid development of digitalization has not only reshaped criminal activities but also driven changes in crime governance models. The relationship between digitalization and crime has garnered increasing academic attention. This study utilizes urban panel data from 2014 to 2021 to analyze the impact of government digital transformation (GDT) on urban crime rates. The results indicate that GDT significantly reduces urban crime rates, and the finding remains robust after undergoing multiple robustness and endogeneity tests. Employment rates and social welfare levels serve as mediators in the impact of GDT on crime rates. Further analysis reveals that the impact of GDT on crime rates is more effective in eastern regions, cities with high levels of digitalization, and cities with high income levels. These findings not only expand the research dimensions of the relationship between digitalization and crime but also provide reference for government departments in formulating crime governance policies.