A dynamic QCA of new quality productivity driving high quality economic development in the yellow river basin

The high-quality economic development (HQED) of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) faces dual constraints of growth momentum transformation and regional imbalance. New Quality Productive Forces (NQP) are regarded as a key breakthrough, yet the complex causal mechanisms through which they drive HQED remain unclear. Traditional research methods fall short in uncovering the multifactorial, concurrent causal relationships and the spatio-temporal dynamics involved. Therefore, drawing on panel data from 49 prefecture-level cities in the YRB from 2012 to 2022, this study employs the CRITIC-TOPSIS method and dynamic QCA to measure the HQED index and to explore in depth the configurational pathways and dynamic processes through which NQP evolution fosters the emergence of HQED. The findings are as follows: (1) During the study period, the HQED index of the YRB exhibited a "W-shaped" evolutionary trend, with a spatial gradient of "higher in the east and lower in the west." (2) No single NQP factor emerged as a necessary condition for HQED. (3) The pathways to HQED in the YRB can be categorized into three models: the single-core innovation-driven model, the region-wide innovation resource synergy-driven model, and the comprehensive digital transformation-driven model. Technological innovation plays a universal role, but its effectiveness requires synergy with other factors to be fully realized. (4) While no obvious temporal effects were observed in the configurational pathways, significant spatial heterogeneity exists, with different urban agglomerations displaying distinct pathway preferences. This study reveals the complex interactive mechanisms through which NQP drives HQED in the YRB and provides refined policy implications for place-based and coordinated regional development.