Geodetic Strain Rates, Slip Deficit Rates, and Seismic Potential in the Tianshan, Central Asia

Abstract The Tianshan is an intracontinental orogenic belt that has experienced over 100 Mw ≥ 6 earthquakes since 1700. However, strain rates and slip deficit rates on mapped faults in this region—key factors in assessing its seismic potential—remain underexplored. Using an updated interseismic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) velocity field from 936 stations and four geodetic strain models, we compute surface horizontal strain rates and invert them to estimate slip deficit rates on 97 major mapped faults. We find that surface strain is primarily concentrated (∼70%) in the western half of the Tianshan, with ∼60% of the strain across the entire orogen accommodated by the mapped faults. Incorporating historical seismicity, we assess the seismic moment budget and identify 20 fault segments capable of generating future Mw ≥ 7.0 earthquakes.