Projection of Land Use and Habitat Quality Under Climate Scenarios: A Case Study of Arid Oasis Urban Agglomerations

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of land use and habitat quality (HQ) under climate change scenarios is pivotal for formulating science-based biodiversity conservation policies and promoting climate-resilient urban development in arid regions. By integrating the SD–PLUS–InVEST framework with SPEI-driven drought scenarios, this study introduces a novel coupling mechanism that links climate variability, land-use transitions, and HQ evolution in the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM) under SSP–RCPs scenarios. The HQ assessment was validated using the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI). Simultaneously, the Optimal Multivariate-Stratification Geographical Detector (OMGD) was applied to identify scale-optimized drivers of HQ changes. The results indicated the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cultivated and construction land in the UANSTM expanded, while forest and water areas declined, with unused land remaining dominant from 2000 to 2020. (2) HQ decreased from 0.36 to 0.33 (2000–2020), significantly correlating with RSEI (Pearson r = 0.329, Spearman ρ = 0.446, p < 0.001), with climatic, vegetation, and coupled natural-social factors remaining the dominant drivers. (3) From 2020 to 2050, under all climate scenarios, the areas of farmland, grassland, and construction land are expected to grow, while HQ is projected to improve through the conversion of low-quality areas into moderate- and high-quality habitats (greatest under SSP119, least under SSP585). The framework advances predictive insights for arid-region ecological planning, supporting practical applications in habitat management and sustainable land-use planning, while providing a methodological paradigm for dryland habitat resilience assessment.