Simulating the Electrification of Cape Town’s Last-Mile Motorcycle Fleet: Grid Impact and Resource Requirements

The rapid growth of on-demand services in Sub-Saharan Africa has intensified reliance on internal combustion engine (ICE) motorcycles for last-mile delivery, with Cape Town exemplifying both the opportunities and challenges of this trend. While motorcycles provide affordable and flexible mobility, their disproportionate emissions, high operating costs, and exposure to volatile fuel prices create pressing economic and environmental concerns. This paper investigates the implications of electrifying Cape Town’s last-mile delivery fleet by modelling the operational dynamics of 39,005 delivery trips performed by 385 motorcycles. Using empirical data, the study simulates fleet electrification under two battery-swapping scenarios—daytime swapping only and a hybrid swapping plus overnight charging model—while testing unmanaged and managed charging strategies. Results show that downsizing the fleet could reduce system resources by more than 50%, lowering capital and grid burdens, with managed charging offering long-term operational savings. Managed charging approaches, particularly off-peak balancing and solar-following, successfully mitigate grid strain and enhance solar utilisation, though they demand larger battery pools, a trade-off quantified by a techno-economic analysis. Crucially, pairing electrification with decentralised solar generation demonstrates the potential for a resilient, net-zero system insulated from load shedding. The findings provide a transferable framework for African cities to decarbonise urban logistics while safeguarding rider livelihoods and grid stability.