Relationship between round victories and match outcomes in taekwondo kyorugi: Winning conditions under the best-of-three system

Background The adoption of the Best-of-Three system in World Taekwondo Kyorugi represents a major rule change potentially affecting victory conditions. This study analyzes match performance variables to identify the determinants of success under the Best-of-Three system. Methods We analyzed 382 matches (194 men and 188 women) from the 2023 World Taekwondo Championships and Grand Prix. The variables included round results, points scored, points conceded, Gam-jeom, and scoring first. Descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and independent t-tests were performed (significance was set at p < .05). Results Over 70% of the matches ended within two rounds, with winning both rounds 1 and 2, yielding the highest win probability (men, 68.6%; women, 72.9%). Scoring first was strongly associated with round victories for both sexes (>70%, p < .001). Independent t-tests showed that winners scored significantly more points than losers in all rounds (men: 8.00–10.26 vs. 3.97–5.25; women: 7.31–8.01 vs. 3.21–4.68; all p < .001) and conceded fewer points (men: 4.24–5.89 vs. 8.00–10.12; women: 3.21–4.05 vs. 7.31–8.64; all p < .001). Significant differences in Gam-jeom were found only in Round 1 for men (0.77 vs. 1.02; p = .018). Conclusions Early round wins, scoring first, higher scoring efficiency, limiting both points conceded, and Gam-jeom are critical under the Best-of-Three system. These benchmarks could guide evidence-based training and help develop more effective match strategies.