Towards 2030 and beyond: assessing future energy efficiency policies and trends using ODEX methodology

Abstract Energy efficiency is a central element of the European Union’s approach to achieving its climate and energy objectives, underscoring the need for analytical tools that can support the assessment of future energy efficiency policies and trends. This paper applies the ODEX methodology within a combined ex-post and ex-ante framework to examine projected developments in energy efficiency across sectors. By extending ODEX, traditionally used for retrospective monitoring, to forward-looking national scenarios, the study provides a consistent basis for comparing historical progress with anticipated future improvements. The approach is illustrated using two EU Member States, demonstrating its broader applicability for assessing national strategies and identifying where additional measures may be necessary to meet future final energy consumption targets. The findings reflect patterns reported in recent literature, showing substantial differences in expected efficiency gains across sectors and highlighting areas where progress may need to accelerate to remain in line with EU ambitions. The results also indicate how a top-down, consumption-weighted index such as ODEX can complement existing evaluation practices by offering a transparent way to interpret efficiency trends and by supporting preliminary assessments of energy efficiency policy impacts. While the approach does not replace detailed modelling or bottom-up evaluation methods, it provides a reproducible and data-efficient tool that can assist with cross-country benchmarking, policy evaluation, and ongoing monitoring under the Energy Efficiency Directive. By linking observed trends (ex-post) with forward-looking (ex-ante) scenarios, the framework may contribute to strengthening national and EU-level discussions on future energy efficiency pathways.