The illusion of safety indicators in the mining industry

<i>Objectives</i>. This study evaluates the effectiveness of safety indicators in the mining sector, questioning their ability to accurately represent the risks of severe and catastrophic accidents. Indicators such as the frequency rate, severity rate and Bird's pyramid suggest a correlation between events of varying severity, creating the perception of a safe environment when their metrics are low. However, disasters such as the explosions at the BP Texas refinery and the Deepwater Horizon platform occurred despite seemingly ideal safety indicators. Despite the relevance of this topic, there are few systematic investigations into the effectiveness of these indicators, particularly in the mining industry. <i>Methods</i>. To bridge this gap, the study analyzed public and private data from four companies in the sector, using a mixed-methods approach to examine the relationship between frequent, less severe events and rare, more severe incidents. <i>Results</i>. No significant correlation between these events was indicated, contradicting Bird's pyramid logic. Furthermore, the analyzed safety data exhibit biases that compromise their reliability. <i>Conclusion</i>. This study suggests replacing traditional indicators with new management metrics and incorporating activity analysis to enhance accident prevention and minimize catastrophic risks.