Who Produces Natural Wine (and Who Would Like To)?

In a world where wine markets are losing ground, the natural wine segment appears healthy and growing, gaining an increasing acceptance among consumers, the media and within wineries product lines. This dynamic category is broadly understood as wine crafted from organic or biodynamic grapes, made with minimal cellar intervention and no additives, with the rare exception of small sulfite doses. However, despite its growth and relevance for rural economies linked to viticulture, natural wine remains a largely debated product category, lacking universally agreed-upon standards or unified third-party certifications. This study tackles the crucial lack of definition clarity and disputes among producers regarding what constitutes natural wine and who genuinely meets the standards to be recognized as a natural winemaker by relying on wine producers' self-stated adscription to natural winemaking. We address producer profiles and motivations within this emerging agricultural niche. Using survey responses from 514 wine producers in six European countries, we first identify key socio-economic differences between natural wine producers and non-producers. Second, we analyze the key factors of producers’ behavior towards natural wine production by applying a logistic regression model. Finally, applying a Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), we examine the behavioral factors influencing non-producers' intention to adopt natural wine production. The findings indicate that the intention to produce natural wine is primarily associated with pre-existing attitude mediated by subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. Furthermore, our results highlight divergent opinions among producers and non-producers concerning the motivations for natural wine production. These comprehensive insights are vital for designing effective institutional rural policies and management measures to foster the sustainable growth and economic viability of this unique viticulture segment in rural areas. • Structural equation model based on Theory of Planned Behavior estimated from first large-scale survey of 514 producers. • Self-described natural wine producers tend to have smaller vineyards and lower annual revenue than non-adopters. • The intention to produce natural wine is determined by pre-existing attitudes. • Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control have no direct effect on intention to produce natural wine. • Opinions diverge among producers and non-producers regarding the motivations for natural wine production.