A Blueprint for Data-Driven Climate Action: A Quantified Mitigation Pathway for Chiang Mai Using GHG Accounting and Spatial Analysis

This study develops a replicable, data-driven framework for subnational climate action, demonstrated through a case study of Chiang Mai Province, Thailand. The framework integrates a comprehensive greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory with spatial analysis to identify and quantify location-specific mitigation strategies. Using 2019 as the base year, total emissions were 5,387,482 tCO2e (BASIC+), dominated by stationary energy (40%) and transportation (32%). Under a Business-as-Usual scenario, emissions are projected to reach 6.35 million tCO2e by 2030, highlighting an urgent need for intervention. As a key mitigation strategy, this research conducts a detailed spatial analysis of solar rooftop potential. The findings reveal a significant opportunity: a conservative 30% adoption rate on suitable rooftops could generate approximately 2070 GWh of clean energy annually, leading to an emissions reduction of over 1 million tCO2e. Crucially, this single intervention could offset 16% of the province’s projected 2030 emissions. This study presents a viable pathway for subnational entities to contribute to national climate targets, offering a practical blueprint for other cities and regions globally to develop effective, evidence-based climate action plans.