Modeling migration intentions under environmental stress through push pull dynamics and policy effects

Environmental stress has emerged as a critical driver of population displacement, yet its interaction with migration intentions remains underexplored. This study investigates how environmental vulnerability shapes individuals' intentions to migrate, drawing on the push-pull theory of migration. Data were collected from residents of high-risk environmental zones in China and analyzed using a dual-stage approach. The findings reveal that environmental stress and perceived economic opportunities significantly influence migration intentions, with perceived risk mediating the effect of environmental stress. Moreover, policy awareness moderates the relationship between perceived economic opportunity and migration intention. The results highlight environmental stress as the most influential factor, underscoring the importance of proactive policies to reduce involuntary migration and strengthen community resilience. This study contributes to migration research by integrating environmental, economic, and policy perspectives, offering valuable insights for both scholars and policymakers.