Research on the Probabilistic Durability Design Method of Reinforced Concrete Structures in Chlorine Environments

This study addresses the durability life assessment of reinforced concrete structures in chloride environments by establishing a three-stage probabilistic durability design model based on material degradation mechanisms. Reliability analysis demonstrates that the probabilistic durability design method using the design value approach significantly improves control accuracy compared with conventional methods. Under three service life criteria—initial steel corrosion, protective layer cracking, and critical crack width—the relative errors between target reliability indices and actual values are 5%, 7%, and 7.8%, respectively, validating the method’s effectiveness in durability evaluation. The proposed model overcomes limitations of traditional partial factor methods in generality, applicability, and flexibility. It not only enables owners to customize target reliability indices according to project requirements but also facilitates dynamic updates with the latest statistical data. The research provides a life-cycle durability design solution with both theoretical significance and engineering practicality for concrete structures in chloride environments.