Robust Offshore Wind Speed Forecasting via Quantum-Oppositional BKA-Optimized Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Adaptive VMD Denoising

Accurate offshore wind speed forecasting is crucial for ensuring stable energy production and safe offshore operations. However, the strong nonlinearity, non-stationarity, and chaotic behavior of offshore wind speed series make precise prediction extremely difficult. To overcome these difficulties, a two-stage synergistic prediction framework is proposed. In the first stage, a multi-strategy Black-winged Kite Algorithm (MBKA) is designed, incorporating quantum population initialization, improved migration behavior, and oppositional–mutual learning to reinforce global optimization performance under complex coastal conditions. On this basis, an entropy-driven adaptive Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) method is implemented, where MBKA optimizes decomposition parameters using envelope entropy as the objective function, thereby improving decomposition robustness and mitigating parameter sensitivity. In the second stage, the denoised intrinsic mode functions are used to train an adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), whose membership function parameters are optimized by MBKA to enhance nonlinear modeling capability and prediction generalization. Finally, the proposed framework is evaluated using offshore wind speed data from two coastal regions in Shanghai and Fujian, China. Experimental comparisons with multiple state-of-the-art models demonstrate that the MBKA–VMD–ANFIS framework yields notable performance improvements, reducing RMSE by 57.14% and 30.68% for the Fujian and Shanghai datasets, respectively. These results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in delivering superior accuracy and robustness for offshore wind speed forecasting.