Multitemporal Drought‐Vegetation Adaptation: Lag‐Cumulative Effects and Resilience Dynamics in Central Asia

ABSTRACT The intensification of global change and the escalation of anthropogenic activities have increasingly exacerbated drought conditions in Central Asia (CA), threatening regional ecosystem sustainability and socioeconomic stability. Although previous studies have characterized drought spatiotemporal patterns, a systematic assessment of vegetation responses, particularly regarding lag effects, cumulative impacts and adaptive strategies, remains lacking. Therefore, this study utilized multisource remote sensing and hydrological datasets (e.g., Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI], Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI], Solar‐Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence [SIF] and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment‐Drought Severity Index [GRACE‐DSI]) from 1982 to 2022, to quantify the lagged and cumulative effects of drought on vegetation and assess ecosystem responses through drought resistance and recovery capacity in CA. The results indicated that (1) vegetation responses to drought across CA exhibited significant lag and cumulative effects, with maximum SPEI‐NDVI correlation coefficients (MCC) exceeding 0.4 at 4–8‐month lags in 64.5% of CA, and particularly prominent cumulative impacts at 10–16‐month scales in southern CA; (2) grasslands and croplands demonstrated the highest drought sensitivity (DS), with the most pronounced fluctuations in SIF, while approximately 67.2% of CA exhibited strong resistance though there with low resistance expanded markedly during extreme drought events (e.g., in 2001 and 2021); and (3) short‐ and medium‐lived vegetation exhibited strong post‐drought recovery capacity (i.e., recovery index [RI] > 0.75), contrasting with slower and more variable recovery in long‐lived types, while mean vegetation recovery in CA had declined notably since 2020. This study advances the understanding of drought‐vegetation coupling in CA and provides data‐driven insights for identifying drought‐prone regions, evaluating ecosystem functionality and informing adaptive environmental management strategies.