Bitcoin Under Volatile Block Rewards: How Mempool Statistics Can Influence Bitcoin Mining

The security of Bitcoin protocols is deeply dependent on the incentives provided to miners, which come from a combination of block rewards and transaction fees. As Bitcoin experiences more halving events, the protocol reward converges to zero, making transaction fees the primary source of miner rewards. This shift in Bitcoin's incentivization mechanism, which introduces volatility into block rewards, leads to the emergence of new security threats or intensifies existing ones. Previous security analyses of Bitcoin have either considered a fixed block reward model or a highly simplified volatile model, overlooking the complexities of Bitcoin's mempool behavior.