Evaluating the influence of land use dynamics on flood mitigation strategies: A hydrological analysis of the Marala-Khanki reach in the Chenab River basin

Floods are extreme natural disasters caused by heavy rainfall and river overflow, posing significant hazards to human populations worldwide. The presented study evaluates floodplain inundation and examines the impact of land-use changes on the Chenab River in Pakistan. Land use analysis is conducted from Landsat-7 satellite images and river morphology data from Google Earth. Two-dimensional LISFLOOD and HEC-RAS models were used to simulate the flood inundation in the Marala Khanki Reach. Using LISFLOOD at a discharge of 15,938 m 3 /s, the model predicted a maximum inundation of 434 km 2, and the HEC-RAS model predicted 473 km 2 . The study revealed a 25 % increase in urban areas, a 17 % decrease in farmland, and significant transformations of the floodplain. Agricultural land is expected to decline by 2034, while urban expansion is anticipated to continue. These results highlight the harmful effects of urbanization on floodplain dynamics. The study recommends that urban planning incorporate cautious measures to address flood risks. This finding highlights the need for future research to develop effective flood mitigation strategies for vulnerable urban areas. • Hydrological models were used to assess floodplain inundation in the Chenab River’s Marala-Khanki Reach. • Urban growth rose 25 % and farmland fell 17 %; expansion may continue, increasing flood risks by 2034. • LISFLOOD and HEC-RAS estimated inundation areas of 434–473 km² at a discharge of 15,938 m³/s. • The study recommends sustainable flood mitigation and planning for flood-prone regions.