Human-powered vehicles as a way to abate transport-related greenhouse gas emissions, Part 1: Assessing modal shift impact through comparative Life Cycle Assessment — An Italian case study

This study delves into the pressing issue of surging Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions within the European Union (EU) transport sector. With a particular focus on the significant environmental impact of road transportation, the paper advocates for a transition towards more sustainable alternatives. It specifically explores the potential of velomobiles, enclosed human-powered vehicles (HPVs), as a viable solution. A survey of more than 1200 individuals in Italy, with most respondents based in the Piedmont region, provides insights into commuting patterns across ten modes of transportation and attitudes toward the adoption of velomobiles. Survey results on the willingness to adopt velomobiles are used to project future mobility patterns within the population surveyed. Rather than merely reiterating the environmental benefits of cycling, the study offers an original contribution by integrating behavioural insights with environmental modelling to assess the realistic potential for a modal shift. Particular attention is given to identifying which transportation modes velomobiles are likely to replace, providing a nuanced understanding of their role in future sustainable mobility systems. The subsequent comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) reveals GHG emission reductions with the most realistic scenarios indicating a 20% to 30% decrease in Well-To-Wheel emissions. Despite the conservative assumptions adopted, the study yields promising results. A final analysis, limited to velomobiles and cars, shows that expanding the system boundaries could lead to even greater savings, as the modal shift could extend the life of the car and help avoid the purchase of a second one in the long term. Velomobiles, with their potential to drive modal shifts, emerge as effective tools in reducing emissions. While recognizing regional variations, the study suggests encouraging outcomes for velomobile adoption in Italy and emphasizes the pivotal role of modal shifts in achieving sustainable transportation objectives. • Velomobiles are potential cleaner substitutes to cars for many routine trips. • Interest in modal shift to velomobiles is analysed, via survey of 1200+ respondents. • 40% of the respondents would shift from present modes of transport to velomobiles. • Taken the intended modal shift, a comparative Life Cycle Assessment is conducted. • Results show average 20%–30% decrease of GHG emissions for routine trips.