Investment analysis and risk management of renewable energy greenfield in Brazil

This paper uses Brazil’s renewable energy sector investments as a case study to examine the development process of Chinese enterprises in the country’s renewable energy greenfield projects during the initial phase. It emphasizes the critical role of Brazilian government agencies in the project approval process, particularly regarding environmental protection. The study systematically addresses a gap in the literature on the risks evaluation in renewable energy greenfield projects development in Brazil. Key risk factors and risk control measures associated with the development of new energy projects are explored, offering valuable insights for Chinese enterprises expanding abroad. A central contribution of this study was the application of the Fuzzy-FMEA method for risk assessment, which demonstrated its robustness as a tool to mitigate uncertainties in risk evaluation. This methodology allowed for a structured analysis and prioritization of risks, highlighting critical challenges in greenfield development related to grid unavailability, COD delays, environmental permits, plan execution, and land regularization. In addition, this paper also presents the details and specifications of how to obtain permission in the development stage of renewable energy greenfield investment projects in Brazil, integrate renewable energy greenfield investment projects into a more systematic investment risk framework, and ensure the feasibility of foreign investors entering renewable energy investment projects in Brazil from both regulatory and licensing aspects. Our study reveals that the promotion of Brazil’s new energy greenfield investment project development model, which centers on environmental permits, reflects the continuous improvement of the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. Meanwhile, the vigorous development of new energy by Chinese-funded enterprises in Brazil is not only an important measure to enhance local people’s well-being, but also an effective way to stimulate local economic recovery and promote the overseas development of Chinese-funded enterprises.