Economic Policy Uncertainty and Crime: An Asymmetric Relationship

ABSTRACT Using a sample of US counties for the period 2010–2018, this study is the first to isolate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on crime rates. We employ an estimator that controls for joint endogeneity of regressors and find a crime inducing effect of rising uncertainty for violent crime. Complementary analyses reveal that this relationship is both asymmetric and transitory: spikes in uncertainty trigger temporary increases in crime rather than persistent level shifts, whereas declines in uncertainty fail to generate a comparable reduction. Finally, a comprehensive set of robustness checks confirms that our findings are not driven by changes in reporting behavior or uncertainty‐induced shifts in policing policy, and that the main results extend to property crime as well.