Climate shocks and shifting communities: the impact of rainfall extreme on social cohesion in the Global South

Abstract This study examines the impact of climate shocks on community social cohesion in the Global South, with a focus on social trust and acceptance of diversity in Indonesia. Drawing on longitudinal data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) waves 4 (2007–2008) and 5 (2014–2015), and precipitation anomalies as a proxy for climate shocks, the analysis finds that excessive rainfall significantly reduces both social trust and acceptance of ethnic and religious diversity. Analyses of mechanisms and tests for differential effects by sub-groups suggest that community-level changes in poverty, flood exposure, and spatial landscape account for declines in diversity acceptance, but not in social trust. Departing from conventional theories that emphasize positive effects of increased rainfall, this study highlights the potentially negative consequences of rainfall anomalies. These findings offer important perspectives into how climate change can influence social cohesion in the Global South, underscoring the need for adaptation strategies that foster inclusivity and trust to enhance community resilience.