Regional heterogeneity in groundwater response driven by land-use transitions across Pakistan

Pakistan This study examines the relationship between land use and land cover (LULC) changes and groundwater storage (GWS) dynamics in Pakistan from 2003 to 2023. It uses Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite-derived LULC data, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) groundwater estimates, and the Seasonal Groundwater Storage Index (SGSI) to analyze standardized fluctuations in groundwater recharge. The study measures the spatial and temporal variations of LULC and GWS trends across different land cover types to understand how human activities and environmental changes impact underground water resources. The results show a national average GWS decline of −5.2 ± 0.7 mm yr⁻¹ totaling about 104 mm over twenty years. Central Punjab experienced the steepest decline at −8.3 mm yr⁻¹ , while Gilgit-Baltistan had a slight increase of + 0.4 mm yr⁻¹ likely due to recharge from glaciers. The expansion of cropland (+15 %), along with decreases in forest cover (-22 %), wetland (-34 %), and open water (-18 %), has greatly increased groundwater stress. Urban sprawl grew after 2010, adding more pressure on local aquifers. SGSI values mostly turned negative after 2013, reaching a low of −1.8 in 2021. These results underscore the importance of effective land and water management in securing Pakistan’s long-term water supply and protecting the environment. • Provides a nationwide analysis of groundwater storage variability in Pakistan. • Links land-use and land-cover changes with groundwater storage variations. • Shows strong spatial contrasts: depletion in plains, gain in glacial regions. • Finds cropland and urban growth drive stress, while forests aid recharge. • Provides a framework for groundwater management in data-scarce regions.