Impact of the Ripple Effect on the Resilience of Multimodal Container Port Operations: A System Dynamics Simulation Approach

Current assessments of port resilience primarily focus on the risks affecting its operations, often neglecting the ripple effects across different subsystems within a port. In multimodal container ports, these sub-systems include liner shipping, feeder shipping, railways, and trucking. Moreover, prevailing research predominantly addresses port resilience from a macro perspective without detailing micro-level operational concerns. This article proposes a new integrated methodology that not only considers but also quantifies the ripple effects across different multimodal sub-systems and their impact on overall port resilience. It employs real operational and accident data to assess the resilience of a multimodal container port under different disruption scenarios, hence providing valuable insights into preventing systemic failures through targeted interventions at the subsystem level. The proposed methodology comprises three principal components: a system dynamics (SD) simulation that integrates variables and factors affecting port resilience, a resilience analysis model that converts system performance into a resilience metric based on three fundamental criteria, and a comprehensive port system resilience assessment utilizing Evidential Reasoning (ER). Each step, from the detailed simulation model reflecting micro-level mechanisms to aggregating information across subsystems, builds toward determining the port's overall resilience. Multiple disruptive scenarios are designed and derived from historical failures and field investigations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively assesses port performance under disruptions, identifies critical subsystems, and supports timely recovery strategies. Applicable to other port systems, this approach offers essential insights for improving long-term resilience in container port operations.