Applying a novel scoring approach to assess the success of waste management CDM projects by region, size, and subtype

(250 words) Greenhouse gas emission abatement is a primary objective of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) under the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, three criteria were developed and ascribed to CDM projects under sectoral scope 13, “waste handling and disposal”: 1) project performance; 2) specific costs for issued certified emission reductions (CERs); and 3) transition status to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) or a voluntary carbon offsetting program. Using the criteria and a success threshold, an aggregate scoring system was devised to rate the overarching “success” of each individual project. Finally, the projects were grouped by geographic subregion, project subtype, and size classification to observe success rate differences. Of 280 projects evaluated, only 114 were assessed as being successful under this model (40.7%). Projects in “Latin America and the Caribbean” were more than 1.5 times more likely to be evaluated as successful as projects in “Southeast Asia” and “Mainland Asia”. Projects classified as “large” were 1.8 times more likely to be evaluated as successful compared to projects classified as “small”. Projects managing “manure”, “landfill power”, and “landfill flaring” were more likely to be evaluated as successful as “waste water” projects. The evaluation also showed that amongst the chosen criteria, cost-effectiveness is the least critical criterion for the success and longevity of the CDM projects. The developed novel scoring method provides a useful tool to assess the general project performance of CDM projects and could also be applied to other sectoral scopes. • Novel scoring method applied to waste management CDM projects • Of 280 evaluated projects, only 114 (41%) assessed as successful • “Most successful” projects tended to be “large” in scope and landfill gas projects • Cost-effectiveness determined to be the least critical success criterion