Distribution of forest-based innovations across Europe

• Geographical probability of innovation development for Europe’s forests has been produced. • Results are generated by combining survey and machine learning. • Place-based factors of forests are highly explanatory of innovation development. • Wood-focused innovation tend to develop in economically viable forests. • Innovations focused on regulating ecosystems tend to develop in forests that are not economically viable. Vast majority of forestry research on innovations is based on case studies, which makes it difficult to ascertain their distribution across Europe. The relation between innovating activity and the forest within which it takes place is also an under-explored research area. In this study, we address these problems by combining survey data, spatially explicit datasets and machine learning to devise geographical probability distribution of innovation development across Europe. We differentiate between innovations focused on provision of wood and those which focus on biodiversity protection, carbon storage and forest recreation. We also show that most of the variability in the data depicting innovation development can be explained by place-based variables, such as the amount of tree biomass in the forest, tree species composition, nature protection status, terrain ruggedness and road density. Results suggest the need to further explore the role of ‘place-based’ contextual variables in innovation development and highlight various issues that different policies might face when aiming to modify forest management practices in Europe.