Promoting potato as a substitute in low-yield regions for grain crops can achieve multiple benefits in China

Potato cultivation in China grew only modestly after the 2015 Potato as Staple Food policy, amid grain crop prioritization. Here, we identified grain crop low-yield regions and compared grain crop versus potato performance in productivity, economics, and carbon emissions using the crop model and life cycle impact assessment model. We found that planting potato in these regions would increase crop productivity by 2%‒119%, lower greenhouse gas emissions and intensities by 6%‒85% and 26%‒92%, respectively, while the economic returns increased from generally lower than $600 for the original crops to over $1600 per hectare. However, switching to potato in low-yield wheat and maize regions would reduce calorie supply by over 70%, though these reductions would not affect overall caloric provision at the national level. Our results show that substituting traditional crops with potato offers multiple benefits, enhancing productivity and economic returns while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions, with minimal trade-offs in China. Replacing staple grains with potatoes in China’s low-yield regions boosts yields by 2-119% and doubles economic returns while cutting greenhouse gas emissions and intensities, based on a hybrid approach integrating a process-based model with a life cycle assessment.